「連銀自身のバランスシート大丈夫か・・・」
と書いたが、やはり案の定のニュースが今朝のウォール・ストリート・ジャーナルに出てた。
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122888021757894023.html
中央銀行がみずから債券を発行し、市場から直接資金調達したいと言い出してる、というのである。
債券出すのは財務省、おカネ出すのはFRB、といちおう役割分担してるんだが、FRBも債券の発行体になりたい、と。
ＷＳＪによると、８月から現在まで、ＦＲＢのバランスシートは何と！$900 Billion からあっという間に$2 Trillion に膨れ上がった、という。 （ゲッ！）
流動性が完全に失われてしまったクレジット市場では、CPだMBSだRepoだと、何でもかんでもFRBがスーパーヒーローよろしく自分のフトコロに抱え込んで、その場凌ぎやりまくってるんだから、数ヶ月でバランスシートが2倍に膨れるのは、当たり前である。
財務省は財務省で、7000億ドルのT.A.R.P.金融市場救済資金を調達するのに、米国債をだしまくらなくては間に合わないと言う状況で、国が発行できる債券の額の法的上限に近づいてしまうかもしれないというのが、FRBが自前発行するという案の背景にあるらしい。
「皮算用」としては、政府が発行しようが、国の中央銀行が発行しようが、発行体が変わるだけで、どっちも国の信用力だからさー、と市場をまるめこもうとしてるのはアリアリ。
しかしね・・・その皮算用は、おおいに甘いな。
わたし自身がトレーダーなら、対トレジャリーでスプレッド乗っけてもらわなきゃ、んなもん、絶対にトレードしたくないね。 誰が買うのさ。
発行体としてみた場合、バランスシートが一気に2倍以上に膨れ上がったと聞いてイヤ～な気分なのに、貸した先のいくつかは将来デフォる可能性が高いうえに、政府からの無条件保証もつけてもらえないのだろうから、国家（ソブリン）の信用力よりリスク高いの、当たり前だもん。
今日は、保険会社AIGが実はまだ$10 Billion もの隠れ損失を抱えてるというのWSJのすっぱぬき記事もあったし。
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B911320081210
AIGを筆頭に、膨れ続ける一方の金融機関のリスク量を、どんどん国や連銀に【飛ばし】続けているのが、実態だ。
この前代未聞の壮大なるリスク・トランスファー。いつまで、どこまで続けられるものやら・・・・。
連邦準備銀行法はFRBが直接起債調達する権限を明文化しておらず、この案が実現するかは不透明。でも、FRB債発行の可能性を書いたWSJの記事は、いろんな意味でけっこう重要なんで、ここに全文張っておくことにする。
Fed Weighs Debt Sales of Its Own
Wall Street Journal, December 10, 2008
By JON HILSENRATH and DAMIAN
PALETTA
The Federal Reserve is considering issuing its own debt for the first time, a move that would give the central bank additional flexibility as it tries to stabilize rocky financial markets.
Government debt issuance is largely the province of the Treasury Department, and the Fed already can print as much money as it wants. But as the credit crisis drags on and the economy suffers from recession, Fed officials are looking broadly for new financial tools.
The Federal Reserve drained $25 billion in temporary reserves from the banking system when it arranged overnight reverse repurchase agreements.
Fed officials have approached Congress about the concept, which could include issuing bills or some other form of debt, according to people familiar with the matter.
It isn't known whether these preliminary discussions will result in a formal proposal or Fed action. One hurdle: The Federal Reserve Act doesn't explicitly permit the Fed to issue notes beyond currency.
Just exploring the idea underscores many challenges the ongoing problems are creating for the Fed, as well as the lengths to which the central bank is going to come up with new ideas.
At the core of the deliberations is the Fed's balance sheet, which has grown from less than $900 billion to more than $2 trillion since August as it backstops new markets like commercial paper, money-market funds, mortgage-backed securities and ailing companies such as American International Group Inc.
The ballooning balance sheet is presenting complications for the Fed. In the early stages of the crisis, officials funded their programs by drawing down on holdings of Treasury bonds, using the proceeds to finance new programs. Officials don't want that stockpile to get too low. It now is about $476 billion, with some of that amount already tied up in other programs.
The Fed also has turned to the Treasury Department for cash. Treasury has issued debt, leaving the proceeds on deposit with the Fed for the central bank to use as it chose. But the Treasury said in November it was scaling back that effort. The Treasury is undertaking its own massive borrowing program and faces legal limits on how much it can borrow.
More recently, the Fed has funded programs by flooding the financial system with money it created itself -- known in central-banking circles as bank reserves -- and has used the money to make loans and purchase assets.
Some economists worry about the consequences of this approach. Fed officials could find it challenging to remove the cash from the system once markets stabilize and the economy improves. It's not a problem now, but if they're too slow to act later it can cause inflation. Moreover, the flood of additional cash makes it harder for Fed officials to maintain interest rates at their desired level. The fed-funds rate, an overnight borrowing rate between banks, has fallen consistently below the Fed's 1% target. It is expected to reduce that target next week.
Louis Crandall, an economist with Wrightson ICAP LLC, a Wall Street money-market broker, says the Fed's interventions also have the potential to clog up the balance sheets of banks, its main intermediaries.
"Finding alternative funding vehicles that bypass the banking system would be a more effective way to support the U.S. credit system," he says.
Some private economists worry that Fed-issued bonds could create new problems. Marvin Goodfriend, an economist at Carnegie Mellon University's Tepper School of Business and a former senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said that issuing debt could put the Fed at odds with the Treasury at a time when it is already issuing mountains of debt itself.
"It creates problems in coordinating the issuance of government debt," Mr. Goodfriend said. "These would be very close cousins to existing Treasury bills. They would be competing in the same market to federal debt."
With Treasury-bill rates now near zero, it seems unlikely that Fed debt would push Treasury rates much higher, but it could some day become an issue.
There are also questions about the Fed's authority.
"I had always worked under the assumption that the Federal Reserve couldn't issue debt," said Vincent Reinhart, a former senior Fed staffer who is now an economist at the American Enterprise Institute. He says it is an action better suited to the Treasury Department, which has clear congressional authority to borrow on behalf of the government.
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